2/1/2024 0 Comments Probabilty tree diagrams![]() So there you go, when in doubt draw a tree diagram, multiply along the branches and add the columns. You can see more uses of tree diagrams on Conditional Probability. ![]() One final step: complete the calculations and make sure they add to 1: (When we take the 0.6 chance of Sam being coach and include the 0.5 chance that Sam will let you be Goalkeeper we end up with an 0.3 chance.)īut we are not done yet! We haven't included Alex as Coach:Īn 0.4 chance of Alex as Coach, followed by an 0.3 chance gives 0.12.Ġ.3 + 0.12 = 0.42 probability of being a Goalkeeper today Here is how to do it for the "Sam, Yes" branch: This is done by multiplying each probability along the "branches" of the tree. The tree diagram is complete, now let's calculate the overall probabilities. If you get Alex, there is 0.3 probability of being Goalie (and 0.7 not): Now, if you get Sam, there is 0.5 probability of being Goalie (and 0.5 of not being Goalie): The probability of getting Sam is 0.6, so the probability of Alex must be 0.4 (together the probability is 1) First we show the two possible coaches: Sam or Alex: So, what is the probability you will be a Goalkeeper today? about 6 out of every 10 games (a probability of 0.6).
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